In my comments published in the Harvard Business Review last year I had opined that failure to recognize platform disrupters (like the self-driving car) can be very detrimental to corporate health and existence.
However, most such Disruptions can be prevented from having a Big Bang effect by smart companies by:
- early identification of emerging trends
- what-if /SWOT analysis to identify impact on existing business
- identify opportunities to leverage the emerging trend
- get "co-opted" into the evolution process
- ride the evolutionary wave and reap the benefits.
Companies which do not do so will feel the impact of what was actually an evolutionary process as if it was a "Big Bang". Guys who see an oncoming "self-driving car' and prepare for it can run alongside it a bit and then board it ; guys who are oblivious will be "hit by a self-driving car". (with due apologies to the proverbial "bus")
- early identification of emerging trends
- what-if /SWOT analysis to identify impact on existing business
- identify opportunities to leverage the emerging trend
- get "co-opted" into the evolution process
- ride the evolutionary wave and reap the benefits.
Companies which do not do so will feel the impact of what was actually an evolutionary process as if it was a "Big Bang". Guys who see an oncoming "self-driving car' and prepare for it can run alongside it a bit and then board it ; guys who are oblivious will be "hit by a self-driving car". (with due apologies to the proverbial "bus")
So has your company started to think about self-driving cars and their likely impact on your business?
Google's motivation to be in this business may be to make more time available to individuals for web browsing (you gotta do something when you are not driving!); but a little bit of crystal ball gazing can see lots of potential downstream disruptive effects on other businesses:
- Drive thru's and Drive Thru Foods (KFC, Burger King et al): Service could be from either side of the car. Food packaging and portions, even the kinds of food available can change since the individual can focus on eating not driving and eating.
- Pepsi, Coke, Media et al: How can we get a share of the time made free from driving available to us. Can we make the "non-driver" drink more of our soda? eat more of our munchies? watch our t.v. show?
- Corporate: Can we productively engage people in our office work while they are non-driving to work? What tools/gizmos can support that?
- Electronics, Accessories: What do we get into the design pipeline to be available as ready to market products when the "self-drivong car" hits us.
Moral of the Story: The Self-Driving Car is coming. Its not as far as you think. And no, it is not likely that you will not be impacted. Better start preparing for it. The early birds will get all the worms. Others will be history.
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